Coronavirus and Chernobyl

 Life is the best teacher but we are not the best students

One of my deeply held convictions is that life is the best teacher. We learn far from what is happening around us in our lives than anything we may learn in a classroom setting. In joy or in sorrow, during our childhood or in adulthood, in ups or in downs, life has so much to offer to us, so many learnings for us to take. But, fortunately or unfortunately, we don't always have the time or the will or the skill or the desire or the wisdom or the vision or the appetite to see, appreciate, learn, and imbibe what life has to offer to us. With everything that is going around us in our lives these days, are there any lessons that we can draw from anything that has happened before? In our lives or someone else's lives? Something that can help us understand and prepare us to manage the different types of impacts of Coronavirus?

While there are many lessons that we can draw from the current developments (and I would focus on those lessons at some other time), in this current blog I would focus on the lessons we could draw from Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster. Many comparisons have been made between Coronavirus and past epidemics like the Spanish Flu of 1918 or the SARS and MERS viruses of 2000s. However as we approach the 34th anniversary of Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster, I would focus on comparing Coronavirus with Chernobyl and what lessons Chernobyl could offer us in the current circumstances.

Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster 1986 and Coronavirus - Covid 19 2019-20

1) Local accidents/incidents, global significance: An accident happened in one of the reactors of Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in former USSR (current Ukraine) on 26th April 1986. Some died within hours of coming into contact with the nuclear radiation, many others died over the next few days, months, and years through direct radiation and indirect radiation related illnesses. Till date there  is no universal consensus on the number of deaths. Depending on the source of information, estimates vary between 42 to 200,000. However, one thing on which there is a consensus is that it is considered to be the worst nuclear disaster in history.

Coronavirus Covid 19 originates from Wuhan city in Hubei province of China in December 2019. Some died within hours of being infected by the virus, many others continue to die over the next few days and months. As on date, there is a reasonable estimate but no universal consensus on the number of deaths. However, one thing on which there is a consensus is that it is considered to be the worst pandemic in last century (the Spanish Flu of 1918 is considered the worst pandemic).

2) Initial reactions and attempts to hush it under the carpet: The initial reactions of workers, engineers, and other employees of Chernobyl Nuclear Plant ranged from disbelief, denial of any such possibility happening, bewilderment, and fear. As the reality started to sink in, attempts were made to control the accident, then control the extent of damage to the plant and the impacts outside the plant, and then to keep the information restricted to as few people as possible while waiting for the senior government figures to decide the course of action.

While we don't really know as of now the initial reactions of citizens of Wuhan when they had first come to know about the Coronavirus Covid 19 and its impacts, what we can be fairly certain is that as the reality of impacts of Coronavirus Covid 19 and its spread started to sink in, attempts were made to control the spread, keep the information restricted to as few people as possible while waiting for the senior government figures to decide the course of action.

3) Communist regime and display of authoritarian tendencies: USSR was under a Communist regime at the time of accident and the USSR government was known for exercising authoritarian tendencies. Those tendencies were in display after the accident as well in the manner the way information about incident was treated (downplaying the accident and its impacts) and the first attempts to control the damage at local and then national levels.

China is under a Communist regime at the time of Coronavirus Covid 19 and the current Chinese government is know for exercising authoritarian tendencies. From what little is known so far, those tendencies were in display in the first few days after the novel Coronavirus was reported by locals and those from medical fraternity (downplaying the virus and its impacts), especially in the way the people who reported the potential impacts were treated (Dr Li Wenliang was arrested on charges of spreading lies and causing panic. He subsequently died in February because of the virus.)

It must be noted that authoritarian tendencies are not the exclusive feature of communist regime and many non-communist regimes (democracy, dictatorship, princely states) have in the past and continue to display authoritarian tendencies even today.

4) What's truth? Use of Information as a strategic asset: The Chernobyl accident provides vital lessons on how information was considered and used as a strategic asset by government that wielded authoritarian power over their country. After the accident, there was a lot of confusion about what is real and what is not, what is true and what is not, what do we know and what do we not. There were lots of misinformation (incorrect information spread without any malintention), disinformation (incorrect information spread due to malintention), incomplete information, rumours and speculations, and outright lies and falsehoods.

In the beginning, it was the local administration officials and then later it was the national Communist government that tried to use information as a strategic asset by selectively and deliberately using any or all of disinformation, misinformation, incomplete information, lies and falsehoods. Reasons for using these ranged from incomplete or absence of technical and scientific knowledge about the reactors, radiation and the accident, fear, fear of panic among the locals, fear of loss of trust by locals on the government, fear of anarchy, fear of use of information about the accident by countries which were adversaries of USSR, potential for tightening the control over media and other institution in the country, potential for extending the stay at the top etc.

In the case of Coronavirus Covid 19, even though the first infection or knowledge about the infection was supposed to be in December 2019, the fact that there is no universal consensus about the origins (time, mode etc.) today is an example of how little do we know in this world of social media and being bombarded with information day in and day out. A lot of that uncertainty is due to the way information is controlled and treated by the Chinese government. Just like Chernobyl, there is lot of confusion about what is real and what is not (e.g. does it spread through plastic milk packets?), what is true and what is not (e.g was it created in the lab?), what do we know and what do we not (e.g. does it spread through air?). There are a lot of misinformation, disinformation, incomplete information, rumours and speculations, and outright lies and falsehoods.

In the beginning, it was the local Wuhan and Hubei administration officials and then later it was the national Chinese government that tried to use information as a strategic asset by selectively and deliberately using and releasing any or all of above mentioned types of information. Reasons for doing these could range from incomplete or absence of medical and scientific knowledge about the virus, its structure, its spread, and its treatment, fear, fear of panic among the locals, fear of loss of trust by the local on the government, fear of anarchy in mainland China, fear of anarchy in disturbed regions of China (Hong Kong, Xinjiang), fear of use of information about the accident by countries which are adversaries of USSR (particularly USA- the debate on it being labelled as Wuhan Virus or China Virus), potential for further tightening the control over media and other institutions in the country (e.g. expelling media persons from global media in February), potential for extending the stay at the top nationally and perhaps ascending to the top in international forums etc.

It must be noted that information has been, and continues to be used as a strategic asset in our families, in our societies, in our educational institutions, in organisations, in institutions, and in governments in some or the other context at different points of time (e.g wars).  Depending on the contexts, those in control of information have different reasons to believe that the extent and time of information to be released and shared is vital for their interests and objectives. However the use of information as a strategic asset during times of epidemics and pandemics can lead to devastating consequences as being witnessed today.

5) Local accident, Global impact: The Chernobyl accident was a classic case of a local accident having global and multi-faceted impacts. There were public health, industrial, environmental, behavioural, financial and systemic impacts of the accident which were felt around the world, some immediately and some over the course of time. The accident had a profound impact of the structure of government systems, rules and regulations, business procedures and conduct, and way of life in many societies and countries around the world.

In the same manner, the impacts of Coronavirus Covid 19 are likely to be global and profound, and felt over years, and perhaps, generations.
How does it alter the supply chain and operations of companies that have significant exposure to China (either in terms of markets or manufacturing and production)?
How does it lead to public and governments' perceptions about public health and preparation for public health emergencies?
How does it lead to public and governments' perceptions about environmental issues and preparation for public environmental emergencies?
How does it impact the level of trust people have over their governments?
How does it impact the way governments and government mechanisms are designed, setup and organised?
Will it lead to preference over authoritarian systems over non-authoritarian systems? Will it lead to increase in government?
How does it alter the international diplomatic and strategic relations between countries?
How does it impact the way we do work and travel to our work places?
How does it impact the rise of new technologies?
How does it lead to the emergence of new or shaking of current business order?
How does it lead to changes in our dietary habits, in consumption patterns, and in our daily lives? How does it prepare countries, businesses, societies, individuals, and the world for the next public health or public environmental emergencies like Climate Change?

The answers to the above questions will have impacts, some deep some not as much, some short term and some long lasting, on our lives. Any one individual may not have answers to all the above questions ( I certainly don't have :-)) and it is for us to collectively figure out the answers and possible pathways ahead.
Life is offering us these lessons and throwing us some questions. Perhaps it is the time for us to be worthy students! 

Rashomon & Kashmir

I had heard of the term 'Rashomon effect' and the movie 'Rashomon' several times in the past, but it was only yesterday that after a student suggested that I watch this, did I try to search for it online.
It wasn't there on any of the popular on-demand-video platforms (e.g. Netflix, Hotstar, Amazon Prime, Airtel Xstream), but I was able to find it on YouTube.

After watching the movie last night, I was able to understand why a 70 years old Japanese movie is so highly rated even today. The term 'Rashomon effect'  refers to a situation in which the 'eye witnesses' give different, and often conflicting descriptions or interpretations of the same event. For an onlooker, there is no single 'truth' but different 'truths' that come out of those descriptions.

Witnessing the events unfolding in Jammu & Kashmir after 5th August 2019, I find uncanny similarities with Rashomon effect and the movie Rashomon. Inspired by the movie Rashomon, the idea behind this blog is to draw similarities between Rashomon effect and the recent events. The point of this blog is not to share my thoughts on which description or interpretation do I agree with or which I do consider true/correct. 

Sitting here in Jamshedpur, I have tried to devour as much news as possible from diverse news sources: print newspapers, websites of newspapers, TV channels, blogs, and user generated forums like YouTube, Twitter. In doing so, I have tried to diversify the geographic base of those news sources and have therefore accessed
not just India based news sources (Zee News, NDTV, CNN-IBN, Economic Times, The Hindu, The Telegraph, Hindustan Times, Prabhat Khabar, The Wire, The Print),
but also Pakistan based news sources (Geo News, Ary News, Dunya News, Dawn, 24 News HD, Samaa TV, Hassan Nisar, Najam Sethi),
and foreign based news sources (The Guardian, The New York Times, Huffington Post, Al Jazeera, BBC).
I have also gone through some official Acts and documents such as the Instrument of Accession, Government of India Act 1935, Indian Independence Act 1947, and J&K Constitution Act 1934.

Doing so has helped me learn about many historical incidents which I was unaware of, and enhance my understanding of the past and what is unfolding currently. However what has been the most valuable learning for me is the understanding of the different narratives, how different (and mostly competing and contradictory) narratives have been framed in the past and how those competing narratives are being framed even today.
If one were to largely limit their news consumption to India based news sources, one would get an impression that though there are numerous restriction to civil liberties in Jammu & Kashmir, the state has been largely incident free and peaceful. Further, many will perceive this to be a step that has bamboozled Pakistan and left it with limited options. Some news outlets report about the "excessives of the Indian state/government" and how the Indian state/government is not allowing information to flow from the state.
If, on the other hand, one were to largely limit their news consumption to Pakistan based news sources, one would get an impression that "curfew" has been imposed in J&K and that "fascist Indian state is committing or planning to commit a genocide in the state". One will also read about "rapes and murders being committed by the Indian Army and the Indian state".
When it comes to the foreign based news sources, though there is relatively more diversity in terms of tone and depiction, the general narrative has been that by restricting civil liberties, "Indian state is committing human rights abuse" and that it is a "humanitarian crisis of great magnitude". One will also read about how the "Hindu nationalist government of PM Modi is committing abuses in India's only Muslim majority state of J&K".

One media refers to a person as a terrorist, the other refers to it as an innocent civilian, and the third refers to it as militant. Same person, different descriptions.
One sees J&K as an Indian state, the other sees it as "Makbuza" (occupied) Kashmir, and the third sees it as "Indian's only Muslim majority state". Same region, different descriptions.
One sees the Indian government as Indian government, the other sees it as "Fascist Hindu government", and the third sees it as "Hindu majoritarian government". Same government, different descriptions.

Words evoke emotions and emotions shape our thoughts. The word terrorist evoke completely different emotions from an innocent civilian and militant. It is therefore no surprise that people consuming their news from these broadly three news sources will infer different meanings and their thoughts will be different, and very often contrast to each other.
While which news source do we access is influenced by various factors (e.g. available time, news access, cost of access etc.), quite often it is our existing beliefs and thoughts about the situation and/or the government/Prime Ministers etc that define which news source do we end up consuming the news from.
We see what we want to see.

There is one truth for those watching Indian based news sources, there is another truth for those limiting to Pakistan based news sources, and then there are different truths for those consuming foreign based news sources.
After all, isn't it what the Rashomon Effect is?

It's time to Go..(Revisited)

Seven years back, I had written a blog titled 'It's time to Go'.

Some incidents have of the last few weeks have led me to revisit that blog.

This blog is essentially a version 2 of that blog, a version in which most points of those blog are retained with some additions reflecting recent incidents.

When is the best time to go?

Rather, when is the time to go?

And, how do you go?

Difficult questions to answer. Isn't it?

It's said the first impression is the last impression.

But I also believe that last impression can also be the last impression.

There could be situations when no one remembers how you entered, or when you entered; but everyone will remember how and when you exited.

Not yet getting my point?

I am talking about drama.

I am talking about politics.

I am talking about sports.

I am talking about life.

We may not always control how and when we enter the stage (for example we do not control the time and manner of our birth), but we can often try to control how and when we exit the stage (for example through our deeds, actions, and words).

When we are in action, in whichever arena one may consider, it is very difficult to assess ourselves without any bias continuously/regularly and ascertain if we have had enough and if it's time to move on.
It is especially difficult when we have achieved something spectacular in the past and all our present achievements (or non-achievements) are compared with our spectacular past.

Individuals before us have faced this dilemma, and individuals after us will face this dilemma.

In politics, it happened with Jyoti Basu in the past (He continued to harbour dreams of being the Chief Minister of West Bengal, and possibly the Prime Minister of India, when he was well into his late 80s). It happened with Karunanidhi (When he stepped down from the post of CM of Tamil Nadu in 2011 after losing the state elections, he was 87).

In movies, it happened with Rajesh Khanna in latter years of his life (At the age of 68, he appeared in a 'B' grade movie in 2011, which disappointed many of his fans).

In sports, it happened with Sourav Ganguly in the past (He continued to consider himself 'indispensable' for the Indian Cricket team till the time he was shown the door), and it happened with Sachin Tendulkar (He continued to play for one year after the winning the World Cup Cricket in 2011, till he turned 39, many allege, for completing the feat of 100 international centuries).

In the last few days, it seems to have been happening with MS Dhoni and Eoin Morgan. Many, commentators and sports fans alike, have asked (directly or indirectly) for MS Dhoni to quit cricket. Some have even started asking for Eoin Morgan, the captain of the England Cricket Team that recently won the World Cup of Cricket, to step down.

I find the demands to quit, for these two cricketers, very interesting.
Those who have asked for MS Dhoni to retire cite reasons like his waning abilities, his inability to bat with a higher strike rate, and his inability to bat according to situations etc. Those who oppose this demand cite his past performance, cite non-performance from others in the team, and about his having earned the right to quit etc. 
On the other hand, the relatively few who have asked for Eoin Morgan to step down as captain or quit international cricket do not cite his waning abilities as much as much they cite the need to build team for 2023 Cricket World Cup and the opportunity to quit on a high.

I don't know which of those arguments are right or wrong, but there's a saying which I find very apt for these situations:

You should leave, not when people start saying that it's time for you to leave now; but rather when people ask: why leave now?

Now what could be the possible reasons for people, who have achieved a lot in life, to stay a bit longer and for such demands to surface?

One possible reason why it becomes difficult for those in action to retire/move behind the stage/exit is that they conjure an image/world of their own, where they think that they are indispensable for the state/sport/stage and that they can still match their heydays.

Another possible reason could be the lure of power/fame, and the fear of moving out of stage/fear of oblivion.

It could also be that deep within, these people are trying as hard as they have ever tried and believe that it is just a matter of time when their present becomes as illustrious as their past. Of all the people who would have been left disappointed by India's exit from the World Cup, MS Dhoni perhaps would be the most disappointed. He may have had the sincere belief that he still has within himself that temperament, that brute strength, and that charisma in his repertoire that were the reasons for most of his past achievements and accomplishments on the sports field. 

I don't know which of the above explanation is closer to what one would say reality, but there's one thing that I found fascinating in the demands to quit for Dhoni and Morgan.
Demands to quit for MS Dhoni are for reasons that his present is not as good as his past, while demands to quit for Eoin Morgan are for reasons that future needs to be as good as the present. 

Now, it is time for me to end this blog and go !

PS: The difficulty in quitting as mentioned in my blog is not only limited to the persons named in the blog. Their names were used just to illustrate the point. 

The two extremes of my life

My daughter was born on 28th December 2016. I lost my sister-in-law (younger and the only sister of my wife) on 24th January 2017. She was 29.

In less than 4 weeks, I had seen the two extremes of my life.
I was there to witness my daughter step out in this world. I was in the same city when my sister-in-law breathed her last.

What did I learn during those 4 weeks?
What did I learn in the last one year?

One thing I learnt is that we don't have any, and I mean ANY control on our time of entry in or exit from this world. In a sense it is so obvious. Basic knowledge stuff. General knowledge stuff.
But general knowledge is not all that general and the various complexities of life ensure that we forget or ignore or become oblivious of this plain simple fact.
When everything is going fine, a sense of being under control or in control develops in us. A sense that we are in control of things around us. We can control our emotions, control our feeling, control our career and all these probably lead us to believe that we can control our lives. In some cases we believe that we control our lives. 

But what the two extremes of life did to me was to emphasise that what we know about our life is a fraction of what we don't know about our life.
We have been to the Moon but we don't know exactly how and when one develops cancer or diabetes or pancreatitis (the Goa CM Mr Manohar Parrikar has been diagnosed with it recently) or neuroendocrine tumour (Irfan Khan has recently been diagnosed with it). My sister-in-law was treated in the three best government and private hospitals of Kolkata in January 2017. None of the Doctors across the three hospitals were able to identify the reason for her ailment and the demise. I collected a test-report after her death and even that did not identify any cause. Why did I collect that report after death? Probably to give solace to us that we at least know what she was suffering from?
Till date we have at best conjectures and surmises. More about probabilities and less about certainties.

In a sense isn't it all about probabilities? After all that's how Earth was formed and how living beings came to life: a little bit of here and there and the Earth would not have adequate Oxygen to support lives, a cell here or there and you probably don't get born or get born with some deformities. 

The last 14 months have also reinforced one my one long standing beliefs: unless we know how good things can be, we won't know how bad things actually are. And vice versa. 
There was joy for some days after 28th December but since my sister-in-law was not keeping well, we had to hold back our emotions in the hope that things would soon become normal. And then 24th January.
What to make of the thoughts and emotions in my head? What to say to my wife? To my in-laws? How not to let our grief and agony affect the new born?
Life has not been the same since.

Left = Right

A cacophony of noise giving way to semblance of serenity.

It has allowed me to hear voices which went unheard for few weeks. It has allowed me to listen to my inner voice.

What does that voice say?

I am from the left. I am from the right.

I am as much from the left as much I am from the right.

I am a bit Ravish Kumar, a bit Barkha Dutt, a bit Arnab Goswami, a bit Ranjit Chaudhary, a bit Kishan-Kanhaiyya,  a bit you, a bit me, and a bit of everything around me.

I have my thoughts, my beliefs, my prejudices, my likes, my dislikes, and my biases.

I allow all these to shroud my thinking and to control me.

I also allow others thoughts, others beliefs, others prejudices, others likes, others dislikes, and others biases to shroud my thinking and control me.

Is that a bit sad or a bit strange or a bit expected or a bit life ?

What's odd about the odd-even debate?

Vehicular pollution, these days, is the subject of intense debate globally (Climate Summit in Paris) as well nationally (debate on ‘odd-even’ policy in Delhi). Terms like air quality and pollution have moved beyond realms of scientific and research conversations to common day talk. But something is odd about the debate as some key points are missing from the discourse. Three such points are considered next.

The first point for us to recognize is that the persistent smog and poor air quality in Delhi is not a result of vehicular pollution only. It is but a result of multiple factors, including emissions from industries and power plants, pollutants due to local construction activities, open burning of biomass (for cooking) and agricultural residues in and around Delhi, and prevailing weather conditions. When the objective is to improve the air quality of Delhi, addressing vehicular pollution is necessary, but not sufficient. Therefore any action focusing on only one cause is likely to yield less-than desired result. There is no instant cause and there will be no instant solution either.

Secondly, we also need to realize that when it comes to vehicles being the culprit, it is not quantity of vehicles alone (remember Delhi does not have the maximum cars in the world) but also because of the quality of vehicles. Quality includes age of vehicle, emission norms of engine, state of engine etc. For example, a diesel car compliant with Bharat Stage (BS) IV emission norms is likely to emit up to 22% less CO, and 50% less hydrocarbon (HC), oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) compared to that compliant with BS III norms. Quality of vehicles is crucial to be monitored, and some of the steps could include phasing out vehicles not deemed fit with desired emission norms, by making pollution testing stringent and strictly enforcing it, by introducing stringent BS norms more frequently (compared to equivalent Euro norms, BS norms are delayed by more than 5 years), and by introducing zero emission vehicles (electric vehicles).

The third and most important point we need to ask ourselves is which path do we want to take as a society, as a nation? A path where with growing income and family, everyone owns or wants to own a car? How many cars can our roads accommodate? How many can our environment tolerate? Or a path where rising income and prosperity does not translate to rising desire to own a car? What is being debated for Delhi today will be debated for Lucknow or Patna or any other city tomorrow. It is the duty of governments to provides us with comfortable, accessible, and economical modes of public transportation (e.g. metro, diesel and electric buses) supported by feeder vehicles (e.g. rickshaws). But the question of which path to choose is for us as society to answer. In our focus on war with vehicles, we must not forget the larger battle for a clean and green environment.

PS: This post was written in the first week of December, since when there have been some developments (e.g. temporary ban on diesel cars in Delhi, advancing BS VI to 2020) which have been suggested above.  

Increase in Intolerance? Or Increase in Voice?

 Occupy Wall Street movement began in New York City in September 2011 and spread to more than 1500 cities globally. Arab Spring began in Tunisia in December 2010 and spread across a dozen nations in the Middle East. Anti-corruption movement in India began in 2011 and spread throughout India.

Three different movements held across three different continents

One common theme: social media.

Add to the above list the popularity of Why This Kolaveri Di, and the brouhaha caused by comments of some ‘khaas-aadmi’ and many ‘aam-aadmi’ in recent times in India, and the common theme remains the same: social media. Recent debate around tolerance-intolerance and comments of Aamir Khan are the latest addition to the list of events/controversies in which social media has played a critical role.

Social media provides a unique platform where even an aam aadmi, and not just a khaas-aadmi, can create, exchange, and share content with people they might or might not know. And it is essentially this ability to create and share content which makes social media so powerful. Facebook, WhatsApp, Twitter, Blogger, and Google+ are few examples of social media platforms.

What sets social media apart from other communication platforms such as radio, newspapers, and TVs is that unlike these platforms, communication happens in both direction, often in multiple directions in social media. What makes impact of social media even more powerful is that all this can be done without any significant time lag. An individual can not only be a recipient of information but also a generator of information. This ability to create information on his own extremely crucial, because what it does is that it lends ‘voice’ to all, including aam aadmi, who earlier did not have an equally powerful platform to air their thoughts and had to rely on opinions or information from khaas-aadmi.

It is these three distinct features of social media: i) ability to create information: ‘voice’ ii) ability to share information, and iii) ability to do so without any time lag, which makes social media so powerful.

Social media makes democracy stronger by giving voice to one and all, rich and poor, urban India or rural Indian, of any religion, and of any gender. Social media is helping our institutions become more democratic and providing a feedback mechanism for the institutions and for the elected representatives, whether they are at panchayat level, district level, state level, or national level.

Social media is not only limited to protests and demonstrations (case of the song 'Why this Kolaveri Di' illustrates that well). Information and opinion about new product launches, new electronic gadgets, and sporting events can and is increasingly being shared with all at once, redefining existing customs. Social media, is and will increasingly provide voice to consumers and also shape their demand patterns. 

Exponential increase in number of mobile phone users in India (up from 6.7 million in 2002 to about 900 million today), advent of smart phones, and rapid growth in internet users in India have fueled the increase in voice. This voice does not have any rural or urban segregation as on social media, users in rural India have as much access to any news or content as users in urban India, and have equal chance of getting their voices heard. This ‘voice’ can be created anywhere and anytime, and can be heard anywhere and anytime. What earlier used to be discussed and talked about in closed doors or chowks is now being talked about and debated on social media. 

And in recent months, it is this voice that has increased (In mathematical terms, ∆ voice = non-zero).

India was, and continues to remain tolerant (In mathematical terms, ∆ tolerance = zero).

PS: A version of this post appeared earlier on this page

Analyzing Election Analyses

The year 2015 started with a state election which continues to be talked about even today 2015 end.
The year 2015 will end with a state election which continues to be talked about since 2015 beginning.

The states may be different but the nature of election analyses by "experts" remain the same.

Prior to Delhi elections, the "experts" made us believe lots of things such as

'why BJP will win Delhi election',

'why inducting Kiran Bedi in BJP is a sign of Amit Shah's tactical genius',

'why Arvind Kejriwal will have a tough road ahead',

'why it will be a closely fought battle between the AAP and the BJP'.

Post elections, the "experts" again made us realize lots of things such as

'why BJP did not win Delhi election',

'why inducting Kiran Bedi in BJP was not a sign of Amit Shah's tactical genius',

'why Arvind Kejriwal did not have a tough road',

'why it was not a closely fought battle between the AAP and the BJP'.

The differences in these ex-ante (before the event) and ex-post (after the event) analyses are interesting to note. Even now in case of Bihar elections, such ex-ante analyses are finding their way to various media channels (televisions, newspapers, social media etc.) and many similar ex-post analyses will find their way post the elections.
The differences in the two analyses could be due to a lot of factors, one of which is the presence of 'bias' in the individual carrying out the analysis.

For an individual, it is normal to have sets of beliefs/prejudices/biases.
But for a researcher/political analyst, it is imperative to shed those biases before carrying out the research/analysis.
Juggling between the two facets is not easy and often individual biases find a way to affect the research design and/or the analysis, leading to incorrect interpretations of findings. Presence of biases can and does often lead analysts to present results which they want to present rather than what flows from the analysis.

In case of election/political analysis, absence of individual bias would require a person to be apolitical before starting with the analysis. Apolitical here is defined as someone who has similar (or zero) preference for all political ideologies/thoughts/entities.

From TDR Reject to TDR Refund #Indian Railways #IRCTC

I had booked a rail ticket for journey from Lucknow to Bhopal on 21st April with  ticket PNR (Passenger Name Record) 2746347552.
However due to some reason, I was unable to take the trip to Bhopal and instead traveled to Kolkata from Lucknow on the same date around same time in another train with ticket PNR 2204688065,

I could not cancel my train ticket to Bhopal in time and I instead filed TDR (Ticket Deposit Receipt) online according to the rules of Indian Railways and IRCTC. According to these rules, if a passenger is unable to commence his journey and wants to cancel e-ticket (ticket booked online) after the reservation chart for the train has been prepared, then TDR has to be filed online before the scheduled departure of the train from that station. The Railway norms stipulate that once the train reaches its destination, the TDR claim will be sent to respective Zonal Railway (under which the train operates), who will then communicate to IRCTC about the veracity of the claim. Based on that IRCTC proceeds to either refund the amount (50% of ticket fare) or reject the TDR claim.

Since I had filled the TDR as per rules, I was fairly confident that my TDR would be processed at the earliest and that I will get the refund soon. However to my utter surprise and shock, on 29th April I found that my TDR claim has been rejected by Central Railways (the Zonal Railway for my train to Bhopal) with the reason given as "As per chart, passenger has traveled".

My first reaction was that this wrong rejection could be due to a) lack of proper verification of my claim by Central Railway, or b) error on the part of IRCTC, or c) oversight by the TTE (Travelling Ticket Examiner) who would have allotted my seat to someone else without taking money but omitted to make the changes in passenger chart, or d) inappropriate conduct of the TTE by allotting my seat to someone else in exchange of money and deliberately not marking it in the passenger chart.

My next reaction was to draft a mail to be sent to Central Railways and IRCTC. I checked the website of Central Railways and noted down the email IDs of three key officials, Divisional Railway Manager (DRM), Officer on Special Duty (OSD), and Senior Divisional Commercial Manager (SRDCM). I sent the mail on April 29th. Shortly after that I got the Gmail error mails that two of the three email IDs were not-functional and therefore my message could not be delivered.

I waited for a few days and then forwarded the mail, with minor revisions to another set of email IDs. This time before sending the mails, I tried to submit my feedback on the Feedback link provided on the website of Central Railways. On clicking the link, we get the following message:

"It all began one fine summer day on 16 April 1853. It was a single step of 34 kilometers from is not in the proper format."

I then tried calling some of the numbers given on the website and luckily for me, some of my calls were answered and I came in touch with two key persons, one from the Central Railways and the other from the IRCTC. What followed over the next 4 weeks was a sequence of telephone calls, reminder telephone calls, unanswered telephone calls, being asked by X to contact Y and on contacting Y being asked to contact X, e-mails and reminder e-mails. Frustration was slowly beginning to build inside me but against all odds,

I remained hopeful that my endeavour will result in refund. I mention 'against all odds' since in a similar incident like this, one of my relatives found his IRCTC account deactivated by IRCTC on the pretext of "false TDR claim"!

I got a mail from IRCTC on June 6th that my TDR refund has been processed and Rs 0 will be credited to my account in the next 2-3 days. On seeing the figure of Rs 0, I wondered if this too was caused due to some error. I decided that I will wait for 3 days and after that I will prepare my case to take it further (either to Senior Railway Officials or Consumer Court).

Finally after all this, on 8th June, I got my refund in my account !

Lessons from this experience:
1) As a consumer, we must be aware of the rules of our right.
2) If needed, we must fight for our right and for what is right.
3) If we don't fight for our right, no one else will.
4) Always remain optimistic and hopeful. If nothing else, it will keep one cool and in good spirits.

Being Human: Let's be human for a change

Salman Khan, Virat Kohli, Rahul Gandhi, Narendra Modi, and many more.

What's common?
Well, they are all "Celebrities".

They have excelled in the field they have chosen. They remain in media and capture or have captured our imaginations at some or the other time. They have a massive following of 'fans' (those who will eulogize and idolize them) as well as 'anti-fans' (those who detest and demonize them).

And then there are also people like me who belong to neither category and treat them as they are: as humans.

Humans make mistakes.

And more importantly they keep making mistakes.
Celebrities make mistakes.
And more importantly they keep making mistakes.

In case of mistakes, shouldn't we be using the same yardstick to judge all humans? Irrespective of them being or not being celebrities?

It is important to understand the difference (or the lack of it) between humans and celebrities.

It is important both for us and for the 'celebrities'.

Why it is important for us?

Because, unlike humans, celebrities are social constructs. What it essentially means is that some humans are deemed the status of 'celebrity' by society and based on that status, they enjoy some privileges.  Unlike humans, celebrities are not born but made.

Not all humans are celebrities but all celebrities are humans. 

And just like humans make mistakes and keep making them, celebrities make mistakes and keep making them.

As fans, we often ignore their mistakes (committed intentionally or inadvertently) and in our obsession, justify anything and everything the 'celebrities' have said or done. We idolize them. For us, they can do no wrong.

As anti-fans, we often ignore their good deeds (committed intentionally or inadvertently) and in our obsession, castigate them for anything and everything. We demonize them. For us, they can do no right.

Why it is important for the 'celebrities'?

Because, it is dangerous to be trapped in either praise or criticism.

The moment 'celebrities' start believing the hype around them, they start forgetting that they are humans. They make mistakes, and often make more mistakes trying to ignore/cover those mistakes.

I am not listing down incidents related to 'celebrities' named above which can be categorized under 'mistakes' because the idea of this post is not to list those down.
The idea instead is to argue that celebrities are humans after all and should be treated the same way.
Neither as Gods, nor as Devils.

Let's be Human for a Change !