Life is the best teacher but we are not the best students
One of my deeply held convictions is that life is the best teacher. We learn far from what is happening around us in our lives than anything we may learn in a classroom setting. In joy or in sorrow, during our childhood or in adulthood, in ups or in downs, life has so much to offer to us, so many learnings for us to take. But, fortunately or unfortunately, we don't always have the time or the will or the skill or the desire or the wisdom or the vision or the appetite to see, appreciate, learn, and imbibe what life has to offer to us. With everything that is going around us in our lives these days, are there any lessons that we can draw from anything that has happened before? In our lives or someone else's lives? Something that can help us understand and prepare us to manage the different types of impacts of Coronavirus?
While there are many lessons that we can draw from the current developments (and I would focus on those lessons at some other time), in this current blog I would focus on the lessons we could draw from Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster. Many comparisons have been made between Coronavirus and past epidemics like the Spanish Flu of 1918 or the SARS and MERS viruses of 2000s. However as we approach the 34th anniversary of Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster, I would focus on comparing Coronavirus with Chernobyl and what lessons Chernobyl could offer us in the current circumstances.
Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster 1986 and Coronavirus - Covid 19 2019-20
1) Local accidents/incidents, global significance: An accident happened in one of the reactors of Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in former USSR (current Ukraine) on 26th April 1986. Some died within hours of coming into contact with the nuclear radiation, many others died over the next few days, months, and years through direct radiation and indirect radiation related illnesses. Till date there is no universal consensus on the number of deaths. Depending on the source of information, estimates vary between 42 to 200,000. However, one thing on which there is a consensus is that it is considered to be the worst nuclear disaster in history.
Coronavirus Covid 19 originates from Wuhan city in Hubei province of China in December 2019. Some died within hours of being infected by the virus, many others continue to die over the next few days and months. As on date, there is a reasonable estimate but no universal consensus on the number of deaths. However, one thing on which there is a consensus is that it is considered to be the worst pandemic in last century (the Spanish Flu of 1918 is considered the worst pandemic).
2) Initial reactions and attempts to hush it under the carpet: The initial reactions of workers, engineers, and other employees of Chernobyl Nuclear Plant ranged from disbelief, denial of any such possibility happening, bewilderment, and fear. As the reality started to sink in, attempts were made to control the accident, then control the extent of damage to the plant and the impacts outside the plant, and then to keep the information restricted to as few people as possible while waiting for the senior government figures to decide the course of action.
While we don't really know as of now the initial reactions of citizens of Wuhan when they had first come to know about the Coronavirus Covid 19 and its impacts, what we can be fairly certain is that as the reality of impacts of Coronavirus Covid 19 and its spread started to sink in, attempts were made to control the spread, keep the information restricted to as few people as possible while waiting for the senior government figures to decide the course of action.
3) Communist regime and display of authoritarian tendencies: USSR was under a Communist regime at the time of accident and the USSR government was known for exercising authoritarian tendencies. Those tendencies were in display after the accident as well in the manner the way information about incident was treated (downplaying the accident and its impacts) and the first attempts to control the damage at local and then national levels.
China is under a Communist regime at the time of Coronavirus Covid 19 and the current Chinese government is know for exercising authoritarian tendencies. From what little is known so far, those tendencies were in display in the first few days after the novel Coronavirus was reported by locals and those from medical fraternity (downplaying the virus and its impacts), especially in the way the people who reported the potential impacts were treated (Dr Li Wenliang was arrested on charges of spreading lies and causing panic. He subsequently died in February because of the virus.)
It must be noted that authoritarian tendencies are not the exclusive feature of communist regime and many non-communist regimes (democracy, dictatorship, princely states) have in the past and continue to display authoritarian tendencies even today.
4) What's truth? Use of Information as a strategic asset: The Chernobyl accident provides vital lessons on how information was considered and used as a strategic asset by government that wielded authoritarian power over their country. After the accident, there was a lot of confusion about what is real and what is not, what is true and what is not, what do we know and what do we not. There were lots of misinformation (incorrect information spread without any malintention), disinformation (incorrect information spread due to malintention), incomplete information, rumours and speculations, and outright lies and falsehoods.
In the beginning, it was the local administration officials and then later it was the national Communist government that tried to use information as a strategic asset by selectively and deliberately using any or all of disinformation, misinformation, incomplete information, lies and falsehoods. Reasons for using these ranged from incomplete or absence of technical and scientific knowledge about the reactors, radiation and the accident, fear, fear of panic among the locals, fear of loss of trust by locals on the government, fear of anarchy, fear of use of information about the accident by countries which were adversaries of USSR, potential for tightening the control over media and other institution in the country, potential for extending the stay at the top etc.
In the case of Coronavirus Covid 19, even though the first infection or knowledge about the infection was supposed to be in December 2019, the fact that there is no universal consensus about the origins (time, mode etc.) today is an example of how little do we know in this world of social media and being bombarded with information day in and day out. A lot of that uncertainty is due to the way information is controlled and treated by the Chinese government. Just like Chernobyl, there is lot of confusion about what is real and what is not (e.g. does it spread through plastic milk packets?), what is true and what is not (e.g was it created in the lab?), what do we know and what do we not (e.g. does it spread through air?). There are a lot of misinformation, disinformation, incomplete information, rumours and speculations, and outright lies and falsehoods.
In the beginning, it was the local Wuhan and Hubei administration officials and then later it was the national Chinese government that tried to use information as a strategic asset by selectively and deliberately using and releasing any or all of above mentioned types of information. Reasons for doing these could range from incomplete or absence of medical and scientific knowledge about the virus, its structure, its spread, and its treatment, fear, fear of panic among the locals, fear of loss of trust by the local on the government, fear of anarchy in mainland China, fear of anarchy in disturbed regions of China (Hong Kong, Xinjiang), fear of use of information about the accident by countries which are adversaries of USSR (particularly USA- the debate on it being labelled as Wuhan Virus or China Virus), potential for further tightening the control over media and other institutions in the country (e.g. expelling media persons from global media in February), potential for extending the stay at the top nationally and perhaps ascending to the top in international forums etc.
It must be noted that information has been, and continues to be used as a strategic asset in our families, in our societies, in our educational institutions, in organisations, in institutions, and in governments in some or the other context at different points of time (e.g wars). Depending on the contexts, those in control of information have different reasons to believe that the extent and time of information to be released and shared is vital for their interests and objectives. However the use of information as a strategic asset during times of epidemics and pandemics can lead to devastating consequences as being witnessed today.
5) Local accident, Global impact: The Chernobyl accident was a classic case of a local accident having global and multi-faceted impacts. There were public health, industrial, environmental, behavioural, financial and systemic impacts of the accident which were felt around the world, some immediately and some over the course of time. The accident had a profound impact of the structure of government systems, rules and regulations, business procedures and conduct, and way of life in many societies and countries around the world.
In the same manner, the impacts of Coronavirus Covid 19 are likely to be global and profound, and felt over years, and perhaps, generations.
How does it alter the supply chain and operations of companies that have significant exposure to China (either in terms of markets or manufacturing and production)?
How does it lead to public and governments' perceptions about public health and preparation for public health emergencies?
How does it lead to public and governments' perceptions about environmental issues and preparation for public environmental emergencies?
How does it impact the level of trust people have over their governments?
How does it impact the way governments and government mechanisms are designed, setup and organised?
Will it lead to preference over authoritarian systems over non-authoritarian systems? Will it lead to increase in government?
How does it alter the international diplomatic and strategic relations between countries?
How does it impact the way we do work and travel to our work places?
How does it impact the rise of new technologies?
How does it lead to the emergence of new or shaking of current business order?
How does it lead to changes in our dietary habits, in consumption patterns, and in our daily lives? How does it prepare countries, businesses, societies, individuals, and the world for the next public health or public environmental emergencies like Climate Change?
The answers to the above questions will have impacts, some deep some not as much, some short term and some long lasting, on our lives. Any one individual may not have answers to all the above questions ( I certainly don't have :-)) and it is for us to collectively figure out the answers and possible pathways ahead.
Life is offering us these lessons and throwing us some questions. Perhaps it is the time for us to be worthy students!
