Coronavirus and Chernobyl

 Life is the best teacher but we are not the best students

One of my deeply held convictions is that life is the best teacher. We learn far from what is happening around us in our lives than anything we may learn in a classroom setting. In joy or in sorrow, during our childhood or in adulthood, in ups or in downs, life has so much to offer to us, so many learnings for us to take. But, fortunately or unfortunately, we don't always have the time or the will or the skill or the desire or the wisdom or the vision or the appetite to see, appreciate, learn, and imbibe what life has to offer to us. With everything that is going around us in our lives these days, are there any lessons that we can draw from anything that has happened before? In our lives or someone else's lives? Something that can help us understand and prepare us to manage the different types of impacts of Coronavirus?

While there are many lessons that we can draw from the current developments (and I would focus on those lessons at some other time), in this current blog I would focus on the lessons we could draw from Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster. Many comparisons have been made between Coronavirus and past epidemics like the Spanish Flu of 1918 or the SARS and MERS viruses of 2000s. However as we approach the 34th anniversary of Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster, I would focus on comparing Coronavirus with Chernobyl and what lessons Chernobyl could offer us in the current circumstances.

Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster 1986 and Coronavirus - Covid 19 2019-20

1) Local accidents/incidents, global significance: An accident happened in one of the reactors of Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in former USSR (current Ukraine) on 26th April 1986. Some died within hours of coming into contact with the nuclear radiation, many others died over the next few days, months, and years through direct radiation and indirect radiation related illnesses. Till date there  is no universal consensus on the number of deaths. Depending on the source of information, estimates vary between 42 to 200,000. However, one thing on which there is a consensus is that it is considered to be the worst nuclear disaster in history.

Coronavirus Covid 19 originates from Wuhan city in Hubei province of China in December 2019. Some died within hours of being infected by the virus, many others continue to die over the next few days and months. As on date, there is a reasonable estimate but no universal consensus on the number of deaths. However, one thing on which there is a consensus is that it is considered to be the worst pandemic in last century (the Spanish Flu of 1918 is considered the worst pandemic).

2) Initial reactions and attempts to hush it under the carpet: The initial reactions of workers, engineers, and other employees of Chernobyl Nuclear Plant ranged from disbelief, denial of any such possibility happening, bewilderment, and fear. As the reality started to sink in, attempts were made to control the accident, then control the extent of damage to the plant and the impacts outside the plant, and then to keep the information restricted to as few people as possible while waiting for the senior government figures to decide the course of action.

While we don't really know as of now the initial reactions of citizens of Wuhan when they had first come to know about the Coronavirus Covid 19 and its impacts, what we can be fairly certain is that as the reality of impacts of Coronavirus Covid 19 and its spread started to sink in, attempts were made to control the spread, keep the information restricted to as few people as possible while waiting for the senior government figures to decide the course of action.

3) Communist regime and display of authoritarian tendencies: USSR was under a Communist regime at the time of accident and the USSR government was known for exercising authoritarian tendencies. Those tendencies were in display after the accident as well in the manner the way information about incident was treated (downplaying the accident and its impacts) and the first attempts to control the damage at local and then national levels.

China is under a Communist regime at the time of Coronavirus Covid 19 and the current Chinese government is know for exercising authoritarian tendencies. From what little is known so far, those tendencies were in display in the first few days after the novel Coronavirus was reported by locals and those from medical fraternity (downplaying the virus and its impacts), especially in the way the people who reported the potential impacts were treated (Dr Li Wenliang was arrested on charges of spreading lies and causing panic. He subsequently died in February because of the virus.)

It must be noted that authoritarian tendencies are not the exclusive feature of communist regime and many non-communist regimes (democracy, dictatorship, princely states) have in the past and continue to display authoritarian tendencies even today.

4) What's truth? Use of Information as a strategic asset: The Chernobyl accident provides vital lessons on how information was considered and used as a strategic asset by government that wielded authoritarian power over their country. After the accident, there was a lot of confusion about what is real and what is not, what is true and what is not, what do we know and what do we not. There were lots of misinformation (incorrect information spread without any malintention), disinformation (incorrect information spread due to malintention), incomplete information, rumours and speculations, and outright lies and falsehoods.

In the beginning, it was the local administration officials and then later it was the national Communist government that tried to use information as a strategic asset by selectively and deliberately using any or all of disinformation, misinformation, incomplete information, lies and falsehoods. Reasons for using these ranged from incomplete or absence of technical and scientific knowledge about the reactors, radiation and the accident, fear, fear of panic among the locals, fear of loss of trust by locals on the government, fear of anarchy, fear of use of information about the accident by countries which were adversaries of USSR, potential for tightening the control over media and other institution in the country, potential for extending the stay at the top etc.

In the case of Coronavirus Covid 19, even though the first infection or knowledge about the infection was supposed to be in December 2019, the fact that there is no universal consensus about the origins (time, mode etc.) today is an example of how little do we know in this world of social media and being bombarded with information day in and day out. A lot of that uncertainty is due to the way information is controlled and treated by the Chinese government. Just like Chernobyl, there is lot of confusion about what is real and what is not (e.g. does it spread through plastic milk packets?), what is true and what is not (e.g was it created in the lab?), what do we know and what do we not (e.g. does it spread through air?). There are a lot of misinformation, disinformation, incomplete information, rumours and speculations, and outright lies and falsehoods.

In the beginning, it was the local Wuhan and Hubei administration officials and then later it was the national Chinese government that tried to use information as a strategic asset by selectively and deliberately using and releasing any or all of above mentioned types of information. Reasons for doing these could range from incomplete or absence of medical and scientific knowledge about the virus, its structure, its spread, and its treatment, fear, fear of panic among the locals, fear of loss of trust by the local on the government, fear of anarchy in mainland China, fear of anarchy in disturbed regions of China (Hong Kong, Xinjiang), fear of use of information about the accident by countries which are adversaries of USSR (particularly USA- the debate on it being labelled as Wuhan Virus or China Virus), potential for further tightening the control over media and other institutions in the country (e.g. expelling media persons from global media in February), potential for extending the stay at the top nationally and perhaps ascending to the top in international forums etc.

It must be noted that information has been, and continues to be used as a strategic asset in our families, in our societies, in our educational institutions, in organisations, in institutions, and in governments in some or the other context at different points of time (e.g wars).  Depending on the contexts, those in control of information have different reasons to believe that the extent and time of information to be released and shared is vital for their interests and objectives. However the use of information as a strategic asset during times of epidemics and pandemics can lead to devastating consequences as being witnessed today.

5) Local accident, Global impact: The Chernobyl accident was a classic case of a local accident having global and multi-faceted impacts. There were public health, industrial, environmental, behavioural, financial and systemic impacts of the accident which were felt around the world, some immediately and some over the course of time. The accident had a profound impact of the structure of government systems, rules and regulations, business procedures and conduct, and way of life in many societies and countries around the world.

In the same manner, the impacts of Coronavirus Covid 19 are likely to be global and profound, and felt over years, and perhaps, generations.
How does it alter the supply chain and operations of companies that have significant exposure to China (either in terms of markets or manufacturing and production)?
How does it lead to public and governments' perceptions about public health and preparation for public health emergencies?
How does it lead to public and governments' perceptions about environmental issues and preparation for public environmental emergencies?
How does it impact the level of trust people have over their governments?
How does it impact the way governments and government mechanisms are designed, setup and organised?
Will it lead to preference over authoritarian systems over non-authoritarian systems? Will it lead to increase in government?
How does it alter the international diplomatic and strategic relations between countries?
How does it impact the way we do work and travel to our work places?
How does it impact the rise of new technologies?
How does it lead to the emergence of new or shaking of current business order?
How does it lead to changes in our dietary habits, in consumption patterns, and in our daily lives? How does it prepare countries, businesses, societies, individuals, and the world for the next public health or public environmental emergencies like Climate Change?

The answers to the above questions will have impacts, some deep some not as much, some short term and some long lasting, on our lives. Any one individual may not have answers to all the above questions ( I certainly don't have :-)) and it is for us to collectively figure out the answers and possible pathways ahead.
Life is offering us these lessons and throwing us some questions. Perhaps it is the time for us to be worthy students! 

It's time to Go..(Revisited)

Seven years back, I had written a blog titled 'It's time to Go'.

Some incidents have of the last few weeks have led me to revisit that blog.

This blog is essentially a version 2 of that blog, a version in which most points of those blog are retained with some additions reflecting recent incidents.

When is the best time to go?

Rather, when is the time to go?

And, how do you go?

Difficult questions to answer. Isn't it?

It's said the first impression is the last impression.

But I also believe that last impression can also be the last impression.

There could be situations when no one remembers how you entered, or when you entered; but everyone will remember how and when you exited.

Not yet getting my point?

I am talking about drama.

I am talking about politics.

I am talking about sports.

I am talking about life.

We may not always control how and when we enter the stage (for example we do not control the time and manner of our birth), but we can often try to control how and when we exit the stage (for example through our deeds, actions, and words).

When we are in action, in whichever arena one may consider, it is very difficult to assess ourselves without any bias continuously/regularly and ascertain if we have had enough and if it's time to move on.
It is especially difficult when we have achieved something spectacular in the past and all our present achievements (or non-achievements) are compared with our spectacular past.

Individuals before us have faced this dilemma, and individuals after us will face this dilemma.

In politics, it happened with Jyoti Basu in the past (He continued to harbour dreams of being the Chief Minister of West Bengal, and possibly the Prime Minister of India, when he was well into his late 80s). It happened with Karunanidhi (When he stepped down from the post of CM of Tamil Nadu in 2011 after losing the state elections, he was 87).

In movies, it happened with Rajesh Khanna in latter years of his life (At the age of 68, he appeared in a 'B' grade movie in 2011, which disappointed many of his fans).

In sports, it happened with Sourav Ganguly in the past (He continued to consider himself 'indispensable' for the Indian Cricket team till the time he was shown the door), and it happened with Sachin Tendulkar (He continued to play for one year after the winning the World Cup Cricket in 2011, till he turned 39, many allege, for completing the feat of 100 international centuries).

In the last few days, it seems to have been happening with MS Dhoni and Eoin Morgan. Many, commentators and sports fans alike, have asked (directly or indirectly) for MS Dhoni to quit cricket. Some have even started asking for Eoin Morgan, the captain of the England Cricket Team that recently won the World Cup of Cricket, to step down.

I find the demands to quit, for these two cricketers, very interesting.
Those who have asked for MS Dhoni to retire cite reasons like his waning abilities, his inability to bat with a higher strike rate, and his inability to bat according to situations etc. Those who oppose this demand cite his past performance, cite non-performance from others in the team, and about his having earned the right to quit etc. 
On the other hand, the relatively few who have asked for Eoin Morgan to step down as captain or quit international cricket do not cite his waning abilities as much as much they cite the need to build team for 2023 Cricket World Cup and the opportunity to quit on a high.

I don't know which of those arguments are right or wrong, but there's a saying which I find very apt for these situations:

You should leave, not when people start saying that it's time for you to leave now; but rather when people ask: why leave now?

Now what could be the possible reasons for people, who have achieved a lot in life, to stay a bit longer and for such demands to surface?

One possible reason why it becomes difficult for those in action to retire/move behind the stage/exit is that they conjure an image/world of their own, where they think that they are indispensable for the state/sport/stage and that they can still match their heydays.

Another possible reason could be the lure of power/fame, and the fear of moving out of stage/fear of oblivion.

It could also be that deep within, these people are trying as hard as they have ever tried and believe that it is just a matter of time when their present becomes as illustrious as their past. Of all the people who would have been left disappointed by India's exit from the World Cup, MS Dhoni perhaps would be the most disappointed. He may have had the sincere belief that he still has within himself that temperament, that brute strength, and that charisma in his repertoire that were the reasons for most of his past achievements and accomplishments on the sports field. 

I don't know which of the above explanation is closer to what one would say reality, but there's one thing that I found fascinating in the demands to quit for Dhoni and Morgan.
Demands to quit for MS Dhoni are for reasons that his present is not as good as his past, while demands to quit for Eoin Morgan are for reasons that future needs to be as good as the present. 

Now, it is time for me to end this blog and go !

PS: The difficulty in quitting as mentioned in my blog is not only limited to the persons named in the blog. Their names were used just to illustrate the point. 

The two extremes of my life

My daughter was born on 28th December 2016. I lost my sister-in-law (younger and the only sister of my wife) on 24th January 2017. She was 29.

In less than 4 weeks, I had seen the two extremes of my life.
I was there to witness my daughter step out in this world. I was in the same city when my sister-in-law breathed her last.

What did I learn during those 4 weeks?
What did I learn in the last one year?

One thing I learnt is that we don't have any, and I mean ANY control on our time of entry in or exit from this world. In a sense it is so obvious. Basic knowledge stuff. General knowledge stuff.
But general knowledge is not all that general and the various complexities of life ensure that we forget or ignore or become oblivious of this plain simple fact.
When everything is going fine, a sense of being under control or in control develops in us. A sense that we are in control of things around us. We can control our emotions, control our feeling, control our career and all these probably lead us to believe that we can control our lives. In some cases we believe that we control our lives. 

But what the two extremes of life did to me was to emphasise that what we know about our life is a fraction of what we don't know about our life.
We have been to the Moon but we don't know exactly how and when one develops cancer or diabetes or pancreatitis (the Goa CM Mr Manohar Parrikar has been diagnosed with it recently) or neuroendocrine tumour (Irfan Khan has recently been diagnosed with it). My sister-in-law was treated in the three best government and private hospitals of Kolkata in January 2017. None of the Doctors across the three hospitals were able to identify the reason for her ailment and the demise. I collected a test-report after her death and even that did not identify any cause. Why did I collect that report after death? Probably to give solace to us that we at least know what she was suffering from?
Till date we have at best conjectures and surmises. More about probabilities and less about certainties.

In a sense isn't it all about probabilities? After all that's how Earth was formed and how living beings came to life: a little bit of here and there and the Earth would not have adequate Oxygen to support lives, a cell here or there and you probably don't get born or get born with some deformities. 

The last 14 months have also reinforced one my one long standing beliefs: unless we know how good things can be, we won't know how bad things actually are. And vice versa. 
There was joy for some days after 28th December but since my sister-in-law was not keeping well, we had to hold back our emotions in the hope that things would soon become normal. And then 24th January.
What to make of the thoughts and emotions in my head? What to say to my wife? To my in-laws? How not to let our grief and agony affect the new born?
Life has not been the same since.

Certainty about Uncertainty

It is said that the only ‘Constant’ in this world is ‘Change’.

Language, customs, culture, rules, people, and just about everything changes with time.

On a similar lines, I wonder if the only ‘Certainty’ about life is its ‘Uncertainty’.

Constant about Change. Certainty about Uncertainty.

A sportsperson, Philip Hughes from Australia dies on the Cricket field after being hit by a cricket ball. Till that moment no one had ever thought or imagined that someone could die like that on a Cricket field.

It was reported later that had the ball struck a millimeter here or there, he would probably have been saved. Why did it happen to him? Why did it happen to anyone for that matter?

No one knows.

MH 370 simply vanishes from this world and notwithstanding the numerous conjectures, no can say for sure what happened to it. Did someone shoot it? Did someone kidnap it?

No one knows.

Nepal, India, and surroundings are rocked by an earth quake. They are rattled with another earth quake, albeit of a lighter intensity the next day. Will there be more? When will be the next quake? Where will be the next quake? Why did those people die? Why are so many people suffering?

No one knows.

 

As school children, we are exposed to so many subjects in school. One of them is Science. As students of science we often tend to believe (or are made to believe) that there has to be some ‘rationale’ or ‘logic’ or ‘scientific explanation’ for everything.

Science can explain everything. Or can it?